In the realm of fantasy basketball, the core to success involves a trio of strategies: astute planning, extensive player knowledge, and scrupulous risk-taking. As the 2023-24 NBA season approaches, several key players are drawing considerable attention within the fantasy community, primarily for their potential to either be game-changers or disappointments.
Joel Embiid: A High Risk, High Reward
Joel Embiid remains one of the most tantalizing prospects in fantasy basketball. Projected to average over 60 fantasy points per game, his potential is undeniable. Last season, Embiid impressively averaged 61 fantasy points per game, reaffirming his status as a first-round choice. However, his availability remains a concern. He has never surpassed 68 games in a season and played only 39 games last year. This inconsistent presence on the court poses a significant risk to fantasy managers who depend on the durability of their high draft picks.
In contrast, Nikola Jokic stands in stark relief. Playing 79 games last season with a career low of 69 games, Jokic showcases the kind of reliability that reinforces his premium status in fantasy drafts. For those looking for consistency along with high-level production, Jokic presents a less risky alternative to Embiid.
Veterans and Their Battle with Father Time
LeBron James, turning 40 this season, managed to play 71 games last year, a respite from his recent history of injuries. Over the previous three seasons, LeBron averaged just 52 games, casting doubts on his durability for the upcoming season. With Anthony Davis also showing signs of frailty—averaging only 44 games over three seasons before blowing out with 76 games last season—fantasy managers must weigh their potential upside against the looming threat of missed games.
Remarkably, Davis only exceeded 70 games in consecutive seasons once in his 12-year career, making him one of the more volatile picks in the draft. Fantasy managers need to consider not just the points these players can produce, but also the games they might miss.
The Young Gun: Ja Morant
Ja Morant, now 25 years old, faces both optimism and skepticism. His average of 26.7 points per game (PPG), 7.5 assists per game (APG), and 5.8 rebounds per game (RPG) over the past three seasons indicates elite production when on the court. However, suspension and injury led Morant to miss 73 games last season, a cautionary tale for managers reliant on him.
Veterans with Question Marks: Durant and Irving
Kevin Durant, entering his 18th NBA season at 36 years old, played 75 games last year, suggesting he still has fuel left in the tank. Yet as players age, the risk of injuries can increase, making Durant a calculated gamble. Similarly, Kyrie Irving delivers exceptional stats—26.7 PPG, 49.3 FG%, 39.9 3P%, and 91.2 FT% over the last five seasons—but his availability, averaging just 44.2 games per season over the same period, often leaves fantasy managers in a lurch. Irving's ranking of 22nd in fantasy points per game contrasts sharply with his 47th ranking in total fantasy points, highlighting his availability issues.
The Enigma of Zion Williamson
Zion Williamson is another player with tantalizing potential and significant risk. Averaging 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, his on-court performance is undeniably impressive. However, Williamson's availability remains a red flag, playing only 90 out of 236 possible regular season games in that period. Last season, despite a career-high 70 games played and a late-season surge with a 27.1 PPG average over 10 games, consistency is still a major concern.
Kawhi Leonard: The Consistent Performer?
Kawhi Leonard played 68 games last season and finished with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league, reaffirming his value. Yet Leonard's knee issues, causing him to miss 12 of the Clippers' last 14 games including playoffs, keep his managers cautiously optimistic. His ability to perform at a high level is well documented, but the specter of injury still haunts his fantasy prospects.
Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team means managing such complexities and uncertainties. Savvy managers must balance the lure of high-reward players like Embiid and Morant with the reliability of veterans like Jokic, all while staying vigilant of injuries that may alter the course of their season. The pursuit of fantasy glory is fraught with challenges, but for those who navigate these risks adeptly, the rewards are sweet.